Got the 16s mounted!
255/70R16 are 30.1," tall. It still has a surprising amount of clearance with the fenders--30 seconds of manipulating the steering wheel and checking clearance preliminarily shows at least a half inch all around, so maybe one more size up would work next time without trimming.
The new tire and offset combo sits about 3/4" further out than factory, but the tires have a rounder profile so it isn't very obvious that the tires are physically larger (size slso verified by comparing GPS and odometer distances traveled). I think this rounder profile (relatively narrow tread width compared to section width) is also a factor in how much clearance it still has.
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*edit*
Oh, I also got the windows tinted (double-ceramic on all glass except the moonroof), and installed my curt hitch receiver + hitch bike rack today!