I agree that is public speaking 101. I recently posted in a different thread; what I thought would be a funny, but it bombed badly. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
My main reason for posting the video:
- 1:28 min “If we are ranking sources of health experts on a scale of 1 to 10. 1 is some random person ranting on Facebook (or OB
) and 10 is the World Health Organization!” She claims to about 7 or 8.
- I had hoped you would appreciate this, and I do believe anybody that takes the time to watch will benefit from this information.
7:46 min “We can get better at travel restrictions and quarantine, and we should. But they are not the only option or the best option for dealing with these situations.”
She does state that we need a better world health system as does Larry Brilliant:
(Major take away “Early detection early response.” 15:40 min the only way to deal with a pandemic.) and Bill gates:
(he was spot on with his assessment), but this all needed to be done before SHTF!
It’s not just the US that did not prepare, this is an issue all over the world, hopefully, some good will come from it and people will light a fire under their representative's butts to support the recommendations of the speakers in the videos and not what appears to always be knee jerk reactions.
• 5:59 “we can’t stop the outbreaks with quarantine and travel restrictions!” its physically impossible to get that in place fast enough to stop the outbreak.”
I have read that we are looking at 18 months or more for a vaccine, I do not remember who the expert was that said it. It is now being repeated all over.
I am now going to try to make my point now:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
I pulled these words for word from the various scenario the paper has.
- In the case of COVID-19, it will be at least a 12-18 months before a vaccine is available (References #3). Furthermore, there is no guarantee that initial vaccines will have high efficacy.
- Since the aim of mitigation is to minimise mortality, the interventions need to remain in place for as much of the epidemic period as possible. Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed); pg 7
- Conditional on that duration, the most effective combination of interventions is predicted to be a combination of case isolation, home quarantine and social distancing of those most at risk (the over 70s). pg 8
- Stopping mass gatherings is predicted to have relatively little impact (results not shown) because the contact-time at such events is relatively small compared to the time spent at home, in schools or workplaces and in other community locations such as bars and restaurants. Pg. 8
- A combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required (Figure 3, Table 4). Measures are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration. Pg. 10
- Not accounting for the potential adverse effect on ICU capacity due to absenteeism, school and university closure is predicted to be more effective in achieving suppression than household quarantine. Pg. 10
- The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity. Pg. 11
- A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure.
- To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more Pg. 14-15
- Long-term suppression may not be a feasible policy option in many countries. Our results show that the alternative relatively short-term (3-month) mitigation policy option might reduce deaths seen in the epidemic by up to half, and peak healthcare demand by two-thirds. The combination of case isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of those at higher risk of severe outcomes (older individuals and those with other underlying health conditions) are the most effective policy combination for epidemic mitigation. Pg. 15
Are we doing more harm than good by having everyone quarantine inside of there house and not having
any social interaction? I believe the answer is yes and when the 15 days to slow the spread (
https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/03.16.20_coronavirus-guidance_8.5x11_315PM.pdf) is lifted the virus is going to roar back with a vengeance, all we have done is delay the inevitable. 6:33 min “A period where you are infected and show no symptoms for as long as 24 days.”
I hope I am wrong.
knowledge, experience, and ability, due come with age and a lot of time studying at the school of hard knocks; if you did not let prejudice and fear corrupt you on your journey. Which I am pondering is her reasoning for her attempt at humor with the old person joke.
If you are still serious about meeting on the trail someday “Iced tea and cornbread took the place of Pills and 90 proof” for me many years ago, Coffee sounds great. If things are better by August do you have any plans to go to the Overland Expo Mountain West?
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Hey John -
Things have been moving fast and furious this week, and it isn't even over. Though much of our conversation seems moot at this point, as more and more, and longer, closures are ordered and more communities are issuing Stay Away pleas, you deserve a reply. I appreciate the time and effort you put into your response. I'm not challenging for another reply with this. I wrote most of it last Monday morning. Much has changed since then.
Your point-making seems based on thinking I said Staying At Home and not adventuring for a while will
stop the spread or stop the virus altogether, and that staying at home means hide in the house and have no interaction with anyone. I've been clear in everything I've said here and elsewhere that
slowing things down and flattening the curve of initial infections by staying put for now and
not contributing to the spread will create less of a sudden spike and burden on health systems and other support systems.
Not
stop the spread or stop the virus--we are way past being able to do that--but slow it down and flatten the curve. It's a time-proven method.
It seems too you think I'm advocating for 15 Days being enough. I don't believe I've written or implied that anywhere. I definitely do
not think the 15 Days To Slow the Spread deal, which I've linked to as well in various places, is enough. Nor do I think it will 'lift'. It should not. It may be extended considerably, and should be. (edit: and already has, even by the admin)
I also don't think it was introduced too early, and by your logic, ineffective. It was introduced too late, in my opinion and yes, needs to be strengthened and continue longer through the pandemic. That has been obvious since the beginning, though few have been willing to accept it.
School closures all over the country, first put into effect for two weeks, have already been extended 'til the end of April because folks know the admin's 15 Days is kind of, well, ludicrous. Many businesses have announced closures for much longer than two weeks. Others know they'll likely be closed longer than the 15 Days but not how long. There have been a lot more issuing of "Locals Only" policies around the country for the foreseeable future because too many have adventured to places they're not welcome, many in caravans, for chris'sake. They've put a burden on local resources and have increased fears. I hope it doesn't get to the point where strict don't-even-go-outside-your-house quarantine is in place and enforced with the National Guard policing the streets, but if folks don't do their part more than they have been, it may.
I believe the "15 Days" page was rushed out to help appease fears and placate the American public, as the admin was largely seen as not doing anything cohesive, or not enough, or in too confused a manner by many quarters. Indeed, as far as I'm concerned, the 15 Days seemed the first time in this crisis that the admin presented a more united front in facing it head on.
In fact, I'm betting things will shift and change dramatically, and a lot more than they already have, over the next few weeks. I don't think the plans that are in place now will be the same at all by Easter.
It still is the best thing to stay put, stay close to home, and not go adventuring. More people should have over the last week than did.
It doesn't mean sequestering yourself in your basement or strictly in your house without going outside at all. Though, like I said, if folks don't start getting on board more than they are, it might mean stay IN your house orders are issued with more regularity.
To that same message, you can see what another adventure forum issued last Sunday:
OUR POSITION ON THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC American Adventures : American Adventurist
americanadventurist.com
Michael, here at OB, made a short
vid last night saying much the same. It's also linked to above in this thread.
I wish more would do the same.
As for Overland Expo West in Aug, who knows. I've attended past gatherings, including Expo and enjoyed them. Last time I tried, for Expo East in 2018 (the mudfest), I lost my entire Full Experience fee because of road trouble on the way there. I wasn't able to attend it or American Adventurist's Appalachian Rendezvous, though did make the Rooftop Tent Rally in VA.
My life on the road often takes unexpected turns. I've learned over the years not to plan too far in advance, and right now, especially with the current virus crisis, August is far too far in the future to even think about, much less make plans for. That said though, I've been asked a few times to consider presenting at Expo about things like vanlife adventuring, self-sufficient backcountry camping, night sky photography, and extended solo travel. Might happen, might not; I have no earthly idea right now.
And yeah, definitely still interested in meeting out here somewhere, someday for coffee and chat around a fire. No reason not to. I'm always interested in meeting others who like to get out and adventure, especially folks who take the time like you have to discuss stuff rationally.
Again, I really appreciate your response.
Stay safe, stay clean, stay positive!
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Roaddude - Traveling Photographer/Writer/Artist On the Road In North America. Gear, reviews, people, places, and culture.
roaddude.com
